MM#1: Lecture #5, 7:30pm, Monday 15 May 2000
Loye's Arrow through Chaos


Notes from Appendix A of David Loye, An Arrow Through Chaos: How We See Into the Future, 2000, pp. 173-200.
Douglas MacGregor, 1936
Asked 400 college students for 9 short-term predictions; a majority predicted all 9 outcomes correctly.

Hadley Cantril, 1938
Asked 205 middle-class Americans for 25 long-term predictions; the group was correct in 16 cases.

David Loye, 1972
Surveyed Princeton student leaders with his IMP Profile and selected the highest scorers. These were asked for long-term predictions; they were correct in many cases.

David Loye, 1983
Surveyed 1,500 college students with his HCP Profile and selected the highest scorers. These were asked for 12 short-term predictions; they were correct in 8 cases.

Revised Mon 15 May 2000 by Ralph Abraham