MM#1: Lecture #5, 7:30pm, Monday 15 May 2000
Loye's Arrow through Chaos
Notes from Appendix A of David Loye,
An Arrow Through Chaos:
How We See Into the Future, 2000, pp. 173-200.
- Douglas MacGregor, 1936
- Asked 400 college students for 9 short-term predictions;
a majority predicted all 9 outcomes correctly.
- Hadley Cantril, 1938
- Asked 205 middle-class Americans for 25 long-term predictions;
the group was correct in 16 cases.
- David Loye, 1972
- Surveyed Princeton student leaders with his IMP Profile
and selected the highest scorers. These were asked for
long-term predictions; they were correct in many cases.
- David Loye, 1983
- Surveyed 1,500 college students with his HCP Profile
and selected the highest scorers. These were asked for
12 short-term predictions; they were correct in 8 cases.
Revised Mon 15 May 2000 by Ralph Abraham
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